Still mathematically alive for the season in 7.4% of every possible way this week could go
(snapshot rank this week could land anywhere from #11 to #12)
Houston Dash vs Orlando Pride — scenarios this week
Every result across the league this week, checked in every combination — 6,561 possible ways this week could go, computed exactly.
Orlando Pride hasn't been mathematically eliminated just yet — here's whether each result below keeps that alive (possibly a delulu-alive), and what it would take either way.
If you win this week vs Houston Dash
You could land in #11
Playoff Watch
Still in the running if ONE of these breaks your way…
Nothing alone is enough — it takes more than one result breaking your way together.
S#!t outta luck if any ONE of these combos happens…
Seattle Reign beats Chicago Stars FC
North Carolina Courage beats/draws San Diego Wave FC
Mathematical range
36–42
what's possible
Likely range
36–42 (med 37)
what's plausible
If you draw this week vs Houston Dash
You could land in #11
Playoff Watch
See you next year — nothing elsewhere this week changes that.
Mathematical range
34–40
what's possible
Likely range
34–40 (med 35)
what's plausible
If you lose this week vs Houston Dash
You could land in #12
Playoff Watch
See you next year — nothing elsewhere this week changes that.
Mathematical range
33–39
what's possible
Likely range
33–39 (med 34)
what's plausible
Oct 16
Boston Legacy vs
Racing Louisville FC (upcoming)
Oct 17
Washington Spirit vs
NJ/NY Gotham FC (upcoming)
Oct 17
Utah Royals vs
Kansas City Current (upcoming)
Oct 17
North Carolina Courage vs
San Diego Wave FC (upcoming)
Oct 17
Denver Summit vs
Angel City FC (upcoming)
Oct 18
Houston Dash vs
Orlando Pride (upcoming)
Oct 18
Bay FC vs
Portland Thorns FC (upcoming)
Oct 18
Chicago Stars FC vs
Seattle Reign (upcoming)
"Still in the running" means still mathematically alive for the WHOLE SEASON given this week's result (same logic as the ELIMINATED/CLINCHED check on the league table) — checked exactly across every possible combination of this week's games, not estimated. The mathematical range is the absolute floor-to-ceiling of what's possible; the likely range comes from running the real simulation with this week's result locked in, showing what's actually plausible — the same "reality vs. dream" split as the rest of the site. "Could climb as high as #N" and the CLINCH/tier lines each describe one specific good (or bad) path, not something guaranteed on their own. For their full season-long picture, see their Team View.