Still mathematically alive for the season in 100% of every possible way this week could go
(snapshot rank this week could land anywhere from #2 to #3)
North Carolina Courage vs San Diego Wave FC — scenarios this week
Every result across the league this week, checked in every combination — 6,561 possible ways this week could go, computed exactly.
San Diego Wave FC hasn't been mathematically eliminated just yet — here's whether each result below keeps that alive (possibly a delulu-alive), and what it would take either way.
If you win this week vs North Carolina Courage
You could land in #2
Playoff Watch
Still in the running. Other results around the league won't affect you — but saying there's still a chance can mean lots of things. Keep the spirit alive.
Mathematical range
54–60
what's possible
Likely range
54–60 (med 58)
what's plausible
If you draw this week vs North Carolina Courage
You could land anywhere from #2 to #3
Dream a little: could climb as high as #2 if…
Washington Spirit and NJ/NY Gotham FC draw
Best tier: could lock up HOME FIELD (TOP 4) if any ONE of these happens…
Utah Royals beats/draws Kansas City Current, and Denver Summit beats/draws Angel City FC, and Bay FC beats/draws Portland Thorns FC
Playoff Watch
Still in the running. Other results around the league won't affect you — but saying there's still a chance can mean lots of things. Keep the spirit alive.
Mathematical range
52–58
what's possible
Likely range
52–58 (med 56)
what's plausible
If you lose this week vs North Carolina Courage
You could land anywhere from #2 to #3
Dream a little: could climb as high as #2 if…
Washington Spirit and NJ/NY Gotham FC draw
Playoff Watch
Still in the running. Other results around the league won't affect you — but saying there's still a chance can mean lots of things. Keep the spirit alive.
Mathematical range
51–57
what's possible
Likely range
51–57 (med 55)
what's plausible
Oct 16
Boston Legacy vs
Racing Louisville FC (upcoming)
Oct 17
Washington Spirit vs
NJ/NY Gotham FC (upcoming)
Oct 17
Utah Royals vs
Kansas City Current (upcoming)
Oct 17
North Carolina Courage vs
San Diego Wave FC (upcoming)
Oct 17
Denver Summit vs
Angel City FC (upcoming)
Oct 18
Houston Dash vs
Orlando Pride (upcoming)
Oct 18
Bay FC vs
Portland Thorns FC (upcoming)
Oct 18
Chicago Stars FC vs
Seattle Reign (upcoming)
"Still in the running" means still mathematically alive for the WHOLE SEASON given this week's result (same logic as the ELIMINATED/CLINCHED check on the league table) — checked exactly across every possible combination of this week's games, not estimated. The mathematical range is the absolute floor-to-ceiling of what's possible; the likely range comes from running the real simulation with this week's result locked in, showing what's actually plausible — the same "reality vs. dream" split as the rest of the site. "Could climb as high as #N" and the CLINCH/tier lines each describe one specific good (or bad) path, not something guaranteed on their own. For their full season-long picture, see their Team View.